Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean number of everyday killings each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. But, public safety specialists have advised that homicide data might not signal enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded in these months is very notable,” the President stated, explaining that in November the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the US. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts warned that relying on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly problematic because it may obscure days when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.