Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
