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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still