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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "severe repercussions" last August should Vladimir Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump finally introduced substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, via his latest comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly created by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Military Action

This plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the plan actually weaken that essential autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate background, the former president persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will please the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about dominating a damaged region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it stops functions as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in position the already split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to give up the whole this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to occupy in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, leaving Putin a open route to the capital should he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their present large number soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Notably, Trump's proposal imposes no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to depict the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, the plan declares: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal includes Russia pledge not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached equivalent accords in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "immediate unified armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars include unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best protection against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not